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03/09/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Hawaii Warriors may have the most Western Athletic Conference Tournament titles with three, the last coming in 2002, but this year the islanders aren't even invited to the party as the 27th annual event kicks off this week at the Lawlor Events Center in Reno.
Bringing just eight of the nine member teams to the Silver State, the WAC left the league's least successful program at home and this year it was Hawaii. To further signify Hawaii's problems, the school fired head coach Bob Nash on Monday after just three year's at the helm.
On a more positive note, the top-seeded Utah State Aggies showed once again why they are a force to be reckoned with, sporting a wildly successful 14-2 conference mark as they prepare to take on eight-seeded Boise State in the quarterfinals on Thursday afternoon. As well as USU played this season though, putting up a 25-6 record by no means guarantees the team a place in the NCAA Tournament. In fact, the Aggies know all too well what it means to be snubbed by the selection committee because it was just a few years ago that Utah State, ranked in the AP's top-25, lost in the Big West Conference Tournament and failed to make it to the NCAA Tournament. It was the first time that a ranked program failed to get an at-large bid since the tournament went to 64 teams.
Utah State, the defending champ, is riding a lengthy 15-game win streak into this event and has players like Tai Wesley, Jared Quayle and Nate Bendall to thank for that. Wesley leads the program in both scoring (13.7 ppg) and rebounding (6.4 rpg) and is also first with 40 blocked shots and second in assists with 101. Quayle (11.9 ppg) has the sort of inside-outside game that coaches dream about, able to not only clear 6.2 rpg but also shoot 43.2 percent behind the three-point line. He also led USU in assists (132) and steals (37). Bendall accounts for 10.5 ppg and gives the squad another set of hands on the glass with 5.7 rpg, helping the Aggies to have one of the best rebounding groups in the WAC.
As for the Broncos, they essentially slipped into the tourney because Hawaii completely fell apart. BSU, which won this event in 2008 against New Mexico State, did average a solid 74.2 ppg this season, but at the same time the group gave up 72.5 ppg. Ike Okoye led the way with 12.9 ppg and 8.0 rpg, shooting 53.6 percent from the field, while Robert Arnold showed signs of life in recent weeks and finished the regular season with 11.7 ppg and 4.2 rpg. One of the keys for the Broncos will be the play of Paul Noonan, a starter last season who is now coming off the bench to supply nine points per outing.
Set to take on the winner of the Boise State/Utah State matchup will be the survivor of the Fresno State/Louisiana Tech dog fight. The California Bulldogs were an enigmatic bunch to say the least as they lost Paul George (16.6 ppg, 7.1 rpg) to injury and kept winning and then regained his services and hit the skids. Toss in Sylvester Seay with his 14.3 ppg and 6.0 rpg and FSU had one of the top scoring tandems in the league, but still struggled to come up with 66.3 ppg. The team as a whole is just 32.1 percent successful, yet has allowed opponents to make goof on 37.2 percent beyond the arc. Greg Smith has been a solid interior performer for Fresno with his 11.8 ppg and 6.0 rpg, while Steven Shepp (5.6 ppg) sacrifices his own offense in order to direct the squad with his 145 assists.
LaTech, one of three teams in the league that has never won the tournament title, let alone make it to the championship round, had the talent to be one of the teams to beat this season, but the squad lost three of the last four games coming down the stretch and fell to the fourth seed as a result. Even though he missed the last several games because of an injury, it is expected that Kyle Gibson will be back and ready to go for the Bulldogs. If not, LaTech again has the problem of filling the void left by a player who is averaging 19.1 ppg and is one of the better passers with 92 assists. Magnum Rolle (14.5 ppg, 8.8 rpg) and Olu Ashaolu (10.6 ppg, 8.3 rpg) have been beasts in the paint for LaTech, seemingly always around the ball when it comes off the rim. In the case of Rolle, having logged 69 blocked shots means he gets his hands on the ball as much as anyone on the roster.
A perennial favorite in this event and the host team this season, second- seeded Nevada is tasked with taking on the seventh-seeded Idaho Vandals. The Wolf Pack started off the season a but shaky with two wins in six tries, but the squad picked it up in conference play thanks to the efforts of Luke Babbitt who is one of, if not the, top player in the conference this season. A double-double machine, Babbitt finished the regular season averaging 21.7 points and 9.3 rebounds per outing. Not only does he dominate in the paint, Babbitt is also a tough matchup because he has made 43 percent of his three- point tries this season and that has helped the program hit on 36.6 percent beyond the arc. As soon as defenses began to close up on Babbitt, teammates like Armon Johnson (16.0 ppg, 167 assists), Brandon Fields (14.6 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and Joey Shaw (10.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg) began to get better looks at the basket and take advantage of their opportunities. Toss in the under-appreciated Dario Hunt with his seven rebounds per game and his team-high 60 blocked shots and it is easy to see why Nevada should be sticking around until the end as all good hosts should.
The Vandals had their moments this season, but the fact that they lost to Nevada in both regular-season meetings doesn't bode well for the group at this stage. The big news coming out of Moscow is that Kashif Watson (10.7 ppg) has been suspended for disciplinary reasons and that means the squad will be missing one of its three double-digit scorers. As a result, even more pressure will now rest on the shoulders of Mac Hopson (14.4 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 149 assists) as if it wasn't there already. Steffan Johnson (10.2 ppg) might feel compelled to try his hand at even more three-pointers on Thursday, which might not be a bad thing seeing as how he's made good on 41.1 percent of his tries this season and the Vandals are a solid 38 percent as a group. Center Marvin Jefferson will certainly need to stay out of foul trouble in order to improve upon his 9.0 ppg and 6.1 rpg, especially now that Watson has gone and handicapped the squad.
The last pairing for the quarterfinals might just be the most interesting as sixth-seeded San Jose State clashes with third-seeded New Mexico State. The Aggies, who lost on the road at SJSU this season, has one of the most explosive offenses in the league and averages 78.5 ppg. However, this is also a group that is one of the weakest in the nation on defense with a hefty 78.6 ppg allowed. Jahmar Young leads a list of five double-digit scorers with his 20.9 ppg, followed by Jonathan Gibson with 17.8 ppg as the duo combines to deliver 176 assists along the way as well. Hamidu Rahman (14.0 ppg, 8.4 rpg) and Wendell McKines (10.6 ppg, 9.9 rpg) do all of the dirty work on the inside and yet this squad still losses the battle of the boards by an average of almost three per game. For NMSU, the good news in recent weeks has been the return of Troy Gillenwater who missed the first 21 games of the season. A great addition to the front line, Gillenwater has contributed 14.0 ppg and 6.3 rpg during his return and figures to be an important piece of the puzzle moving forward.
The Spartans may have known they were in trouble this season when they lost to Northern Colorado on the road in late December. Granted, the Bears are a solid team out of the Big Sky Conference, but SJSU lost by 24 points in that matchup and was one of the most lopsided setbacks of the season for the Spartans, who are a dismal 2-12 in this tournament over the years. The team's 14-16 record on the season overall was disappointing, especially since Adrian Oliver was one of the top offensive producers in the entire nation with his 22.5 ppg. Oliver does a bit of everything for San Jose State from shooting 41.7 percent from three-point range to clearing 5.3 rpg and also handing out 87 assists. Robert Owens and Chris Oakes chip in with 10.6 and 10.5 ppg, respectively, the latter among the league leaders with his 9.1 rpg. Like New Mexico State, the Spartans have a problem holding down opponents and have given up 75.1 ppg, which means this matchup could see plenty of action at both ends of the floor.
<< Ducks hope to end slide in matchup with slumping Jackets
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Anaheim Ducks know that their current seven-game
homestand might represent their best chance to get back into the playoff
picture. However, after a less-than-stellar start to the residency, they
should be happy to see the
<< Ailing Senators start up road trip in Edmonton
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - As the Ottawa Senators head to Western Canada, they hope
they left a crippling flu bug behind them. The team will try to snap a three-
game overall slide and pick up a sixth straight win over the Edmonton Oilers,
who look to
<< Canucks visit Avs in clash between Northwest's top two teams
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Of all the games the Vancouver Canucks have played on their
NHL-record 14-game road trip, tonight's contest with the Colorado Avalanche
could be the most important.
Northwest Division-leading Vancouver will try to extend i
<< Panthers aim for rare win against Wild
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Florida Panthers were able to stop their longest losing
streak of the season with victories in their last two games. Now the team will
turn its attention towards ending a long winless drought against the Minnesota
Wild wh
Clark, Randle El to return to Steelers >>
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Steelers have reportedly
agreed to terms with safety Ryan Clark and are also set to bring wide receiver
Antwaan Randle El back to the Steel City.
According to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazet
Rapids sign goalkeeper Joyce >>
Commerce City, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Rapids signed goalkeeper
Ian Joyce, the Major League Soccer club announced on Tuesday. The Rapids also
announced the club released forward Facundo Diz and did not offer a contract
to 2010
Dallas officially adds Hartman >>
Frisco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FC Dallas acquired goalkeeper Kevin Hartman from
the Kansas City Wizards for a second-round pick in the 2012 draft and signed
him to a contract, the Major League Soccer clubs announced.
"I'm excited to be in
Rooney returns to training for United >>
Manchester, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Manchester United has been handed a big
boost ahead of Wednesday's Champions League last 16 second leg clash with AC
Milan after Wayne Rooney was able to take part in training on Tuesday morning.
Roon
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.
Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.
Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.
If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.
Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.
By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.
In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.
So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.
While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.
There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.
In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:
SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.
XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.
XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.
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