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06/02/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Serving as manager of a national team is a pretty thankless job, especially if you are leading one of the premier soccer powers in the world.
Every single game is scrutinized relentlessly, every decision is questioned and if you fail to produce the expected results - which are usually unrealistic - you won't have your job for long.
So when a manager selects his 23-man roster for a World Cup he is already bracing for the backlash of leaving a popular player off the team or failing to take an emerging young star because of a lack of experience.
Some managers simply have an overabundance of talent to choose from and will undoubtedly be wrong no matter who they choose.
With that in mind, here is a list of players who belong on their respective rosters. Let the second-guessing begin.
RONALDINHO AND PATO (BRAZIL):
As a player, Brazil manager Dunga was always more substance than style, and it appears that he is applying the same logic to his current squad. Brazil is not as flashy as it once was, but the results have been there. However, by leaving Ronaldinho off the team he is depriving the world of a player who is still capable of producing moments of magic.
He is not quite the same player who captured two consecutive FIFA World Player of the Year awards, but after a solid season at AC Milan the 30-year-old Ronaldinho belongs in the midfield alongside former teammate Kaka.
Without Ronaldinho, Kaka will likely share the middle of the field with Elano, a good player on set pieces who works hard but can't match the pure ability of the man who has owned the number 10 shirt in recent years.
Having played in two World Cups during his career, it is possible that this Brazilian magician has graced the world's stage for the final time as he will be 34 when the tournament is next played in his home country in 2014.
Pato will no doubt find his way into the World Cup team in future years, but the 20-year-old striker is missing out on a valuable experience that can only help him down the line.
He netted 12 goals in 23 games for Milan this past season, and while fellow strikers Luis Fabiano, Robinho and Nilmar are certainly deserving of their place, Pato surely could have taken the spot of 31-year-old Grafite, who has made just a few appearances for Brazil.
JAVIER ZANETTI AND ESTEBAN CAMBIASSO (ARGENTINA):
It is hard to question what Diego Maradona did on the field as Argentina's greatest-ever player, but by leaving this duo off his World Cup team, he has opened himself up for some second-guessing in his manager's role.
Argentina is blessed with an abundance of attacking talent, but their biggest question mark is in defense, where both Zanetti and Cambiasso would have provided a big lift.
Both players were instrumental in helping Inter Milan to a historic treble this past season, and both bring a wealth of experience to a team that is relatively young in certain areas.
Zanetti is Argentina's most-capped player of all time and would have provided stability to a shaky back line, while Cambiasso could have paired with captain Javier Mascherano in midfield to provide cover on an offense- heavy squad.
FRANCESCO TOTTI (ITALY):
After announcing his retirement from the international game in 2007 Totti had a change of heart about a year later and made himself available to manager Marcello Lippi for national team selection.
However, Lippi has remained loyal to the strikers who helped navigate Italy through the qualification process, players like Alberto Gilardino, Antonio Di Natale and Vincenzo Iaquinta.
All three are good players, but none has the experience of Totti, who has played in two World Cups and made 58 appearances for the Azzurri.
He has been plagued by injuries throughout his career, but after a season that saw him net 14 goals in 23 games for a Roma side that finished second in Serie A, Totti's presence would make a relatively tame Italy attack look a little more threatening.
KARIM BENZEMA (FRANCE):
Following his big-money transfer to Real Madrid from Lyon, Benzema struggled to find regular playing time during a frustrating first season at the Bernabeu.
He started 14 games and made 13 substitute appearances while scoring eight times, but more was expected of one of the hottest young properties in Europe.
France has good options at striker in Nicolas Anelka and the experienced Thierry Henry, but the 22-year-old Benzema could certainly have found his way onto the team ahead of the enigmatic Djibril Cisse.
Cisse has barely been in the national team picture in the past few years, but after a big season in Greece with Panathinaikos, manager Raymond Domenech has decided to bring him back into the fold.
Benzema failed to impress during a disappointing Euro 2008 tournament as a 20- year-old, but instead of taking a player like Cisse who is often injured and inconsistent, Benzema would have been a nice option off the bench while gaining valuable experience.
THEO WALCOTT (ENGLAND):
It is difficult to come down too hard on England manager Fabio Capello for leaving the Arsenal youngster off his team because there are so many good options at Walcott's position.
Joe Cole, Aaron Lennon, James Milner and Shaun Wright-Phillips each have a good case for inclusion, but Walcott would have given Capello a player with blistering pace out wide who has shown an ability to score goals.
Walcott received a surprise call-up to England's 2006 World Cup team as a 17- year-old under former manager Steve McClaren, although injuries and a lack of consistent playing time at Arsenal hurt his chances of making this year's squad.
He scored a stunning hat trick against Croatia in World Cup qualifying, but two subpar performances in recent friendlies appear to have persuaded Capello to pass on the speedy winger.
BENNI McCARTHY (SOUTH AFRICA):
There is no denying the fact that McCarthy is well past his prime, but after all he has done for South Africa over the years he at least deserves to be on the team with the World Cup being played in his native land.
McCarthy saw limited time at West Ham this past season due to injuries and many have questioned his commitment to South Africa, pointing to the fact that he is out of shape.
But despite his poor form this past year, he is South Africa's all-time leading scorer with 32 goals and deserves one last chance in the national team spotlight.
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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting
So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.
Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?
If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)
Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).
In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.
Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.
| The Bubble Breakdown | |||
| CONFERENCE | LOCKS | SHOULD BE INS | AT-LARGES TAKEN (assuming no auto bid outlier) |
| ACC Betting Odds | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| Big East Betting Odds | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Big Ten Betting Odds | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Big 12 Betting Odds | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Pac-10 Betting Odds | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| SEC Betting Odds | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| MVC Betting Odds | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| MWC Betting Odds | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| TOTAL | 28 | 5 | 25 |
As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.
(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)
If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.
Work left to do:
Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.
Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).
Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.
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