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04/29/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Bruins were counted out by many folks when Marc Savard, the club's top offensive weapon, went down with a severe concussion in early March.
First, the critics said the Bruins wouldn't make the playoffs without him, but they did. Then, they said Boston couldn't beat the Buffalo Sabres in the first round without Savard, but they did, defeating the Northeast Division champions in six games.
It turns out the Bruins defied the odds long enough to get Savard back in the lineup as the playmaking centerman has been cleared to play in Round 2, giving Boston a whole new dynamic in this series.
Savard has a chance at finally getting on track in an injury-riddled 2009-10 season. He broke his foot in late October and missed 15 games. Savard then sat out eight more contests with a knee injury in January. That was all before Pittsburgh's Matt Cooke knocked Savard out for the final 18 games of the regular season, and the first round of the playoffs, with a vicious, blind- side elbow to the head on March 7.
Through all that, Savard managed to notch 33 points (10 goals, 23 assists) in 41 games. The 32-year-old had averaged close to 90 points per season in his previous four campaigns.
Savard has recorded 19 points (7g, 12a) in 18 career postseason contests. He is expected to center Boston's top line with wingers Michael Ryder and Vladimir Sobotka, a duo that could use a playmaker in the middle after notching just three and two points, respectively, in Round 1.
Without Savard, the Bruins lacked a go-to scorer, but the club made do with a balanced scoring attack that was effective, if not explosive. Four players tied for the team lead with five points apiece. Mark Recchi, who is 42 years old, and David Krejci both had three goals and two assists, while Miroslav Satan and Patrice Bergeron added two goals and three helpers each.
But, the way Boston is built, the club only needs a smidgen of offense to make things work. The Bruins thrive on winning close games, which was the case in the opening round when Boston outscored the Sabres by a combined margin of 16-15 over the course of the series. Three of the Bruins' wins in the six-game set were by just one goal.
Zdeno Chara is the star on the back end for the Bruins. Boston's captain has mammoth size at 6-foot-9, 255 pounds and can get the job done at both ends of the ice. He was a minus-one in the Buffalo series, but also added two goals and an assist.
All told, Boston's defenseman posted 15 points in the Buffalo series. Dennis Wideman (1g, 3a) and Matt Hunwick (4a) led the way with four points each, The defensemen also helped Boston's power-play thrive in the opening round, with the Bruins scoring at a 27.3 percent clip (6-of-22) with the man advantage.
In net, the Bruins appear to have a blossoming star in Tuukka Rask. The 23- year-old Finn was selected 21st overall in the 2005 draft and surprisingly supplanted Tim Thomas, last year's Vezina Trophy winner, as the team's No. 1 netminder.
During the regular season, Rask went 22-12-5 in 45 games (39 starts) and led the NHL in GAA (1.97) and save percentage (.931). He kept up the good work in his first playoff series, posting a 2.18 GAA and .927 save percentage.
The good news for Boston is, should Rask stumble in Round 2, it has a more than solid backup to turn to in Thomas.
Between the strong team defense and Rask's puck-stopping ability, the Bruins didn't allow Buffalo to score a single power-play goal in the series as the Sabres went 0-for-19 on the man advantage.
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS (7th seed, East)
REGULAR SEASON RECORD: 41-35-6
2010 PLAYOFFS: Defeated New Jersey 4-1 in conference quarterfinals
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Flyers rarely looked like a dominant team during the regular season, but somehow, they managed to play like a juggernaut in the first round of the playoffs.
In fact, the Flyers needed all 82 games to earn a trip to this postseason, claiming a spot in the playoffs with a shootout victory over the New York Rangers on the final day of the regular season.
But, despite being the seventh seed in the East, Philadelphia drew a favorable matchup against the rival New Jersey Devils in the conference quarterfinals. The Flyers took five of six from the Atlantic Division champions during the season and won nine of 11 overall in 2009-10 after ousting the Devils in five games.
Philly entered this season with high expectations, largely due to acquiring star defenseman Chris Pronger from Anaheim in the offseason. Even though Pronger proved his worth all season long, the Flyers still struggled mightily in the early part of the year and wound up firing head coach John Stevens in December and replacing him with Peter Laviolette.
It was Pronger who said recently that the Flyers have been in playoff mode for months now, as they had to make a late push to the postseason, and it certainly seemed like the club was battle-tested in the opening round against New Jersey.
The biggest question mark for Philadelphia heading into Round 1 was whether Brian Boucher could perform in the playoffs. After all, Boucher was third on the Flyers' goaltending depth chart just a few months ago behind Ray Emery and Michael Leighton. But, when both Emery and Leighton suffered serious injuries the Flyers had no choice but to hand the reins over to Boucher and the veteran netminder did not disappoint.
Boucher, 32, outplayed New Jersey's Martin Brodeur, a future Hall-of-Famer, in the opening round. He went 4-1 with a 1.59 goals against average and .940 save percentage in the series, allowing just eight goals on 134 shots. Boucher's steady play ensured that the Flyers did not have to use untested backup Johan Backlund at all against the Devils. Backlund, 28, has played just one game at the NHL level and did not see a minute of action in the New Jersey series.
Backlund will likely begin this series as Boucher's backup, but there is an outside chance that Michael Leighton could return to the bench at some point in this series. Leighton, who suffered a high left ankle sprain in mid-March, has resumed skating and may be able to return as a backup to Boucher.
Pronger also had a strong series from the blueline, recording two goals and three assists. The former Hart and Norris Trophy winner plays on Philly's top pairing with Matt Carle, while Kimmo Timonen and Braydon Coburn are on the second unit. Coburn is the weak link out of that group, but as a whole, the Flyers' top-four defensemen are an asset and not a liability.
In this round, the Flyers' biggest concern is injuries to key forwards Jeff Carter, Simon Gagne and Ian Laperriere.
Carter and Gagne both suffered injuries in Game 4 against the Devils, with Carter sustaining a fractured right foot and Gagne breaking a toe in the same foot. Carter, who led the Flyers with 33 goals during the regular season, is not expected to be back in these playoffs, while Gagne is likely to miss three weeks of action.
The injuries to Carter and Gagne will put more pressure on forwards Mike Richards, Claude Giroux and Danny Briere to produce. All three had solid series against New Jersey, especially team captain Richards, who had eight points on two goals and six assists. Giroux added four goals and six points, while Briere notched five points (2 goals, 3 assists).
Philadelphia doesn't count on Laperriere for scoring, but they will certainly miss him on the penalty kill. Earlier this week, the Flyers learned that Laperriere will sit out the rest of the playoffs after suffering a brain contusion and mild concussion in Game 5 against the Devils. Laperriere sustained his injuries, which also included a gash above his right eye that required more than 60 stitches to close, while blocking a shot in the final game of the series.
The key to Philadelphia's success is on special teams. The Flyers had the NHL's third-best power play during the regular season and the 11th-ranked penalty-killing unit.
The club held New Jersey to four goals on 32 chances with the man advantage in Round 1 and was also 8-of-29 (27.6 percent) on the power play.
The Flyers will need to be the better club on special teams if they want to reach the conference finals for the second time in three years.
MATCHUP
This marks the first time since 1978 that the Flyers and Bruins will meet in the playoffs. All four of the postseason encounters between these clubs came between 1974-78, and somehow, the team's have managed to avoid each other in the playoffs since then.
Each club has won twice in the all-time playoff series. The Flyers won the most notable matchup, beating Boston in six games to win the Stanley Cup in 1974. The Bruins have won the last two encounters, including a five-game series win over Philly the last time clubs met in the 1978 Stanley Cup semifinals.
The Flyers and B's split four games this year in a season series that included Boston's 2-1 overtime victory in the Winter Classic at Fenway Park. Both the Bruins and Flyers had 2-1-1 record in the series, but Boston posted a 5-1 win in Philadelphia when the clubs last met on March 11.
Rask is 2-0-1 with a 2.27 GAA and .926 save percentage in three career games against the Flyers. Boucher, a New England native born in Woonsocket, Rhode Island, is 6-4 with a tie in 12 career games (10 starts) against Boston, The Flyers netminder also has a career 2.29 GAA and a .917 save percentage against the Bruins.
The Bruins have the upper hand in net in this series and also have a slight advantage on defense. With 30 more goals scored during the regular season, Philadelphia would normally have the clear edge on offense, but the Flyers' injuries combined with Savard's return makes the scoring disparity less noticeable.
Boston has a knack for winning close games and expect this series to be full of nail-biters. In the end, the Bruins will use home-ice to reach the conference finals for the first time since 1992.
Sportsbook Betting Lines predicted outcome: Bruins in 7
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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
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